Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.332772 0.376962 0.424904 0.480796 0.544189 0.613887 0.696368
2025-10-12 0.267198 0.325679 0.393940 0.479561 0.584200 0.708069 0.866073
2025-10-19 0.221997 0.288978 0.372470 0.484341 0.630597 0.815716 1.068499
2025-10-26 0.190195 0.263051 0.359542 0.496969 0.688228 0.945833 1.320653
2025-11-02 0.155730 0.227737 0.328576 0.480525 0.704583 1.024260 1.517662
2025-11-09 0.126726 0.195129 0.296001 0.456161 0.705367 1.080515 1.692315
2025-11-16 0.107375 0.173496 0.275828 0.446470 0.725728 1.167860 1.927324
2025-11-23 0.091442 0.154549 0.256719 0.435092 0.741137 1.249166 2.165504
2025-11-30 0.082309 0.145168 0.251386 0.445091 0.792740 1.396460 2.537400
2025-12-07 0.070481 0.129320 0.232775 0.429250 0.796966 1.462976 2.777734
2025-12-14 0.061862 0.117845 0.220055 0.421798 0.814747 1.555580 3.080226
2025-12-21 0.054512 0.107593 0.208028 0.413651 0.829625 1.644345 3.388891
2025-12-28 0.050417 0.103214 0.206851 0.427192 0.890737 1.835147 3.942256
2026-01-04 0.045299 0.096029 0.199169 0.426520 0.923098 1.973822 4.412614
2026-01-11 0.041330 0.090627 0.194325 0.431068 0.967366 2.144700 4.984679
2026-01-18 0.038411 0.087036 0.192759 0.442507 1.028726 2.362701 5.703918
2026-01-25 0.033840 0.079079 0.180542 0.428051 1.028778 2.442836 6.112761
2026-02-01 0.029391 0.070731 0.166242 0.406497 1.008593 2.472600 6.403966
2026-02-08 0.026361 0.065292 0.157892 0.397952 1.018792 2.577306 6.905430
2026-02-15 0.023612 0.060130 0.149461 0.387883 1.023524 2.669202 7.390567
2026-02-22 0.022205 0.058131 0.148505 0.396816 1.079234 2.901369 8.302099
2026-03-01 0.019795 0.053179 0.139379 0.382747 1.070883 2.962210 8.742177
2026-03-08 0.018006 0.049612 0.133342 0.376135 1.082126 3.078577 9.366614